Last update - 09:53 18/03/2008
When
their helicopter takes off tomorrow for a tour of Israel from the sky,
Senator John McCain and Defense Minister Ehud Barak will hope it is a
rerun of the 1998 precedent: a flight over Israel by then-governor
George W. Bush, who later went on to win the presidency. He was with
his host, then-foreign minister Ariel Sharon, who became prime minister
(with the help of Barak and his permit for Sharon to ascend the Temple
Mount).
American voters (such selfish types) are also concerned with issues
of economy and society, spirit and atmosphere, which may tip the
balance in favor of whoever becomes the Democratic candidate, whether
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. But as far as Israel is concerned, and
in view of the candidates' current positions - no one is better than
McCain. The Republican candidate is clearly more qualified than his
rivals to be commander in chief - in theory of the American armed
forces only, but in practice also of the international alliance against
radical states and terrorist organizations. McCain has a deep
understanding of the region's strategic problems and publicly supports
a nuclear deterrent for Israel.
McCain visited Israel many times as part of Congressional
delegations. His first visit was in 1979, when he was not yet an
elected official, but a Navy captain, the Navy's liaison officer to the
Senate. At the time, he was accompanying Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson.
Israelis, whether out of laziness or arrogance, do not often follow a
well-known Washington rule: It is always worth investing even in the
low-level members of a delegation accompanying a VIP - the executive
assistant, the policy adviser or the escort officer - because at some
point they will rise in the ranks of the armed forces, civil service or
Congress, and they will remember the treatment they received when they
were junior in rank.
Jackson
was considered the archetype of a friend of Israel, both for security
reasons and because of his values. McCain is the first of the Jackson
school of thought to come near the White House. When he was awarded the
Henry "Scoop" Jackson Distinguished Service Award by JINSA (the Jewish
Institute for National Security Affairs) in fall 2006, McCain described
himself as "pro-American and pro-Israeli," two terms he does not
believe are contradictory. At the time, he described the Hamas
government as a "terrorist syndicate," called for the disarmament of
Hezbollah, and expressed his reservations about pro-American despots in
the Middle East. About a month later, in Tel Aviv, during a discussion
with a team of officials headed by Barak's predecessor, Amir Peretz,
McCain declared that he was not in the Saudis' pocket.
With regard to the diplomatic process, the next president will
follow the current path; if Obama is tempted to diverge sharply and
imitate Jimmy Carter, he will encounter opposition. The differences
among the candidates must be sought in the field of strategy. In that,
McCain's advantage is clear and unequivocal. While Obama and Hillary
kept silent, and years before they entered politics, McCain dared speak
out - not only against an Iranian nuclear capability, but also in favor
of an Israeli one. In essence, McCain seeks both to prevent nuclear
proliferation and grant Israel an exemption from this regime; he calls
it "a special status."
In a conference call with Major General (res.) Aharon Yariv and his
colleagues at the Jaffee Center in 1990, McCain developed the following
argument: He supports arms control, which depends on peace, which
Israel is seeking. But Israel can only achieve a peace treaty if it
feels that its existence is secure. This sense of security depends on a
powerful deterrent, or on the knowledge that there is no danger of
weapons of mass destruction being used against Israel, because regional
threats have been reduced though an arms control regime that includes
verification and inspection. McCain favors measures to limit nuclear
proliferation, but on condition that they minimize the threat and cost
of war.
"I do not wish to join those who speculate whether Israel has
nuclear weapons or is designing long-range missiles," McCain said at
the time, but "arms control measures must recognize Israel's strategic
isolation and the fact that Israel exists in an area where it can fully
join an arms control regime once it is clear that all other states in
the Middle East will fully comply with such a regime and that Israel's
survival will not be dependent on such a deterrent."
[«Les mesures de contrôle de la prolifération doivent tenir compte de
l'isolement stratégique d'Israël et du fait qu'Israël existe dans une
région, où il ne pourra pleinement se soumettre à un régime de contrôle
de la prolifération seulement lorsqu'il sera clair que tous les autres
régimes du Moyen-Orient s'y soumettent et que la survie d'Israël ne
dépend plus de cette dissuasion»]
The knowledge that
his views would "irritate many Arab friends of the U.S." did not bother
him.
McCain does not require an explanation of the linkage between
progress on the diplomatic track, which involves withdrawal from the
territories, and ensuring Israel's strategic strength. As president, he
would certainly reaffirm Bill Clinton's commitment to Benjamin
Netanyahu at the Wye Plantation conference (which was followed by
Clinton's commitment to Barak and that of Bush to Sharon) on "enhancing
Israel's defensive and deterrent capabilities" - a code for having
become reconciled to Israel's alleged nuclear capabilities.
Should the Syrian track be revived during the next administration,
the idea of a defense alliance between Israel and the U.S. may be
raised again to sweeten the pill of evacuating the Golan Heights.
Clinton wrote in his memoirs that he agreed to this when it was raised.
Of course, such a contractual agreement would limit Israel's freedom of
action, but not much more than is the case today, when the government
does not move without American permission. In the difficult situations
that lie ahead for Israel, it would be to its advantage for the White
House to be occupied by a man like John McCain. |
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